Monday, September 30, 2013

Lower markets as US faces a partial government shutdown

Dow fell 128, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ  slumped 10.  With buying into the close the MLP index went up 1 to 447 & the REIT index dropped 2+ to the 268s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries inched higher.  Oil sold off & gold declined the most in more than a week as equities & commodities dropped with the US gov poised for a partial shutdown.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.32%

U.S. 10-year

2.62%

CLX13.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 13....102.09 Down ...0.78  (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Shutdowns

Photo:   Bloomberg

The Dem-led Senate has rejected conditions that House Reps attached to a temporary spending bill.  On the brink of a gov shutdown, the Senate voted 54-46 to strip a one-year delay in Obamacare from the bill that would keep the gov operating.  The Senate also stripped a provision that would have eliminated the tax on medical devices.  House Reps had added the provisions yesterday in their campaign to undo Obamacare.  The vote came less than 10 hours before a possible shutdown & with no compromise in sight.  Dems & a few Reps are pressing for the House to approve a straightforward spending bill with no conditions. 

Senate Rejects House Bill, Sets Stage for Gov't Shutdown  Associated Press


Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta

Photo:   Bloomberg

Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s deputy finance chief expressed confidence in overcoming Silvio Berlusconi’s challenge, saying the former premier’s faction in parliament is splintering.  “In Berlusconi’s party, there are a number of parliament members responsible enough to understand the serious consequences of a crisis,” Deputy Finance Minister Stefano Fassina said.  “We are confident that we will have the strength for continuing with Letta’s government.”  Letta said last night that he’ll seek backing from the Parliament in Rome this week to try to save his 5-month-old administration after Berlusconi, a partner in the ruling coalition, withdrew his support.  Underscoring how fluid the situation is, Letta won’t make a decision on calling a confidence vote until after an Oct 2 debate in the lower house.  It has been reported that as many as 20 senators of Berlusconi’s People of Liberty, or PDL, are ready to form a breakaway group if the ex-premier doesn’t back down on his confrontation with Letta.  However that was denied by Deborah Bergamini, from the party.  “I don’t have evidence of any defections,” she said.  The rift between Letta & Berlusconi, a 3-time prime minister, has rattled the financial markets.  Italian bonds declined for a 3rd day, pushing the 10-year yield up 3 basis points to 4.45% which increased the difference with German bunds to 266 basis points. Another country is coming unglued.

Letta Aide Sees Berlusconi’s Challenge Undermined as His Faction Splinters


Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett

Photo:   Bloomberg

Warren Buffett's Berkhire Hathaway is poised to get more than $2B in Goldman Sachs stock thru warrants acquired during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.  That could work out to 13.2M shares.  GS turned to BRK.A in 2008 to bolster capital & shore up market confidence when shares plunged following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  BRK.A invested $5B for a preferred holding & received warrants to buy $5B of stock for $115 a share.  GS CEO Lloyd Blankfein redeemed the preferred shares in 2011 at a 10% premium.  Buffett agreed in Mar to exercise the warrants thru a cashless transaction, in which he passed on a chance to spend $5B for stock at below-market prices.  He instead gets an amount of stock equivalent to his paper profit, based on closing prices.  The revised agreement will let BRK.A focus on its top holdings, including Wells Fargo (WFC) & Coca-Cola (KO).  BRK.A fell $1800 to the $159Ks & GS was off 1.64.

Buffett Poised to Get $2 Billion Goldman Stake With Warrants

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)


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Goldman Sachs (GS)


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Stocks had a tough day although it was not as bad as it could have been given all the uncertainty in DC.  It's difficult to make any comments because nobody has a clue how the budget debate will turn out.  The gov shutdown is not truly 100% because the gov takes in a lot of money each year.  But if there is a shutdown, bureaucrats will squeeze & make it as painful as possible to punish taxpayers.  The strength of the stock market was impressive although that could be due to portfolio adjustments to make Sep 30 numbers look better in what has be an outstanding year.

Dow Jones Industrials

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Markets tumble on DC chaos

Dow dropped 98, decliners over advancers more than 3-1 & NAZ lost 12.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 443s & the REIT index was off 2 to 269.  Jank bond funds sold off & even Treasuries were lower.  Oil dropped to the lowest level in almost 3 months on the threat of a gov shutdown that may reduce demand in the largest oil-consuming country.  Gold also saw selling as it languishes in the low 1300s.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.01%

U.S. 2-year

0.33%

U.S. 10-year

2.62%

CLX13.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 13...101.27 Down ...1.60  (1.6%)

GCV13.CMX...Gold Oct 13...1,325.30 Down ...13.10  (1.0%)








  • The morning sun illuminates the U.S. Capitol in Washington, Monday, Sept. 30, 2013, as the government teeters on the brink of a partial shutdown at midnight unless Congress can reach an agreement on funding. Congressional Republicans and Democrats spent Sunday trading the blame for failure to reach agreement on the stopgap funding bill. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Photo:   Yahoo

Hours before a threatened gov shutdown, the Senate has the next move on must-do budget legislation that has fueled a bitter congressional dispute over Obamacare.  But the Senate won't be riding to the rescue, at least not immediately.  When it convenes, the Dem led chamber is expected to reject the latest effort from House Reps to use a normally routine measure to attack Obamacare.  If no compromise can be reached by midnight, Americans would soon see the impact of a gov shutdown.  About 800K federal workers would be forced off the job without pay.  Some critical services such as patrolling the borders, inspecting meat & controlling air traffic would continue.  Social Security benefits would be sent, & the Medicare & Medicaid health care programs would continue to pay doctors & hospitals.  Senate rejection would send the measure back to the House, where Reps want to delay by a year key parts of the new health care law & repeal a tax on medical devices as the price for avoiding a shutdown.  A House GOP leader, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, said the House would rebuff the Senate's efforts to advance the short-term funding bill as a simple, "clean" measure shorn of anti-heath care reform provisions.

Obamacare dispute sends gov't to brink of shutdown Associated Press


Tire Factory

Photo:   Bloomberg

A Chinese manufacturing index rose less than forecast in Sep, unexpectedly weakening from a preliminary estimate in a result that casts doubt on the strength of the economy’s rebound.  The Purchasing Managers' Index from HSBC Holdings Plc & Markit Economics rose to 50.2 in Sep from 50.1 in Aug.  The final number was less than last week’s 51.2 preliminary reading & the 51.2 median estimate.  Premier Li Keqiang is trying to protect a targeted 7.5% expansion for 2013 as the Communist Party prepares for a meeting in Nov to set economic policy for coming years.  A Shanghai free-trade zone inaugurated yesterday, tax breaks & increased railway investment reflect efforts to restructure the economy, support growth & limit stimulus.  Li said that China’s economy is stabilizing & the nation can meet its main economic targets. 

China September Manufacturing Index Misses Preliminary Estimate


US business activity expanded more than forecast in Sep, reaching a 4-month high & adding to signs of a rebound in manufacturing.  The MNI Chicago Report business barometer rose to 55.7 from 53 in Aug (numbers greater than 50 signal expansion).  The forecast was 54.  Manufacturing (12% of the economy) is expanding as demand for automobiles, construction materials & appliances keeps assembly lines busy.  A pickup in business investment & overseas market improvement would help sustain gains & support economic growth into 2014.  The Chicago group’s gauge of new orders increased to 58.9, the highest since Feb, from 57.2 in Aug.  The production index jumped to 58, the highest since May, from 53 last month.  A measure of employment fell to a 5-month low of 53.2 from 54.9.

Chicago Index Increases in Sign U.S. Manufacturing Improving


This is shaping up as an ugly day in what could be an ugly week.  The chaos in DC is bad.  Matters could get worse with the dispute about raising the debt ceiling around the corner.  Around 11:30 PM, the politicos make get serious about a compromise (which would just reflect this & that taped together with Scotch Tape).  With DC so deeply divided, it is likely that these guys will be haggling tomorrow without a wimpy comprise.  Oct starts tomorrow & that is remembered for some the markets' ugliest days in history.

Dow Jones Industrials

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