Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Dow reaches new record on durables orders data

Dow climbed 73, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ moved up 10.  The MLP index was up 2+ to the 533s & the REIT index gained a fraction as it shoots for 311.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries hardly budged.  Oil rose from a 7 month low amid speculation a gov report will show US crude supplies dropped for a 2nd week & gold rebounded.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14...94.04 Up ...0.69 (0.7%)

GCQ14.CMX...Gold Aug 14...1,287.20 Up ...9.90 (0.8%)











Consumer confidence in the US unexpectedly climbed in Aug to the highest level in almost 7 years, reinforcing signs of a strengthening outlook for the second half of 2014.  The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in Aug, the highest since Oct 2007, from a revised 90.3 a month earlier.  The median forecast called for a decline to 89.  Americans are finding more reasons to be upbeat about their prospects for the rest of the year as recent reports pointed to a pickup in the job market & stock prices advances to records.  Stronger sentiment will also help underpin consumer spending, which makes up almost 70 percent of the economy.  Estimates ranged from 85-94 after a previously reported Jul reading of 90.9.  The gauge averaged 96.8 during the last expansion & 53.7 during the 18-month recession that ended in Jun 2009.

Consumer Confidence Index in U.S. Increases to 92.4 in August


Orders for US durable goods jumped in Jul by the most on record as bookings surged for commercial aircraft & revisions showed a bigger advance the prior month.  Bookings for goods meant to last at least 3 years surged 22.6% after climbing a revised 2.7% in Jun, according to the Commerce Dept.  A UK air show helped spark a 318% jump in plane orders, the most since Jan 2011.  Prospects that demand will be sustained are giving companies reason to make larger investments in their operations.  Persistent job growth that keeps households spending, along with a pickup in overseas markets, would help provide an added boost for manufacturers.  The Jul gain in durables orders also reflected increased demand for automobiles.  Bookings for motor vehicles climbed by the most since Aug 2009.  A boost in transactions for aircraft helped lift the overall goods figure.  Orders excluding transportation equipment decreased 0.8% in Jul after a 3% increase a month earlier.  Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, fell 0.5% last month after a revised Jun jump of 5.4%, the strongest since Nov.  The Jun gain was previously reported as 1.4%.  Non-military capital goods excluding aircraft orders were projected to rise 0.2%.  Shipments of such goods, used in calculating GDP, increased 1.5% in Jul after rising 0.9% the prior month.  The Jun reading had previously been reported as a decline.  Motor vehicle assembly lines are humming as demand lingers near an 8-year high.  Cars and light trucks sold at a 16.4M pace, down from 16.9M the prior month (the fastest rate since Jul 2006).

Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Surge on Aircraft Demand


Twitch at E3 Expo
Photo:   Bloomberg

Amazon is ramping up its entertainment ambitions, buying video-game service Twitch Interactive in one of its biggest acquisitions.  It’s paying $970M in cash for the online gathering place for gamers.  The deal is supposed to be worth about $1.1B when including retention-related payouts.  The acquisition gives AMZN an online forum of more than 55M monthly active users, where people discuss games or watch others as they play. Bezos.  The company operates a game studio in Seattle & has been luring software developers to build more video-game titles for its Fire TV set-top box, Fire Phone & Kindle Fire tablets.  “Broadcasting and watching gameplay is a global phenomenon, and Twitch has built a platform that brings together tens of millions of people who watch billions of minutes of games each month,” CEO Jeff Bezos said.  Bezos is spending on other media as well, including $100M to produce TV shows to watch thru Amazon Instant Video service, a music-streaming service & a book-subscription plan.  The interest in Twitch also shows that as people move more of their entertainment habits online & away from traditional TV, the value has increased for online video companies with large user bases.  The high-flying stock was up 3.  If you would like to learn more about AMZN, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AMZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
 
Amazon Bets on Gamer Website Twitch in $970 Million Deal

Amazon.com (AMZN)




Dow & S&P 500 advanced to new records & the S&P 500 cracked thru the important 2K ceiling.  Volume is light, so the significance of these moves is less than at other times in the calendar.  The economic data looks better than it has recently, but more is constantly coming.  Then there is the problem of international conflicts that are getting worse.  For the time being (probably thru at least this week), the bulls have taken control of the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials






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