Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Higher markets after weak retail sales data

Dow rose 91 closing near the highs, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 44.  The MLP index rose again, up a very big 5+ to the 517s, & the REIT index jumped 3+ to 308.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries rallied on more intl confusion, with the yield on the 10 year Treasury at 2.41% (where it was in middle of 2013).  Both oil & gold inched higher. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










CLU14.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 14....97.66 Up ...0.29 (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




China's plunge in credit expansion last month & unexpected slowdown in investment spending flashed warnings on growth that investors & economists bet will spur policy makers to expand stimulus.  Chinese stocks rose on speculation the gov will take steps to support its 7.5% expansion target, after initially falling when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reported the lowest level for its broad financing measure since 2008.  There are forecasts of interest-rate cuts & a reduction in bank reserve requirements.  A property slump & dangers from rising bad loans are making it tougher for Premier Li Keqiang to sustain the fastest growth in the Group of 20 nations.  Any stimulus would build on measures this year to expedite railway spending, free up money for loans for small businesses & channel funds toward building low-income housing.  Aggregate financing was 273B yuan ($44.4B) in Jul, the central bank said, contrasting with a Bloomberg gauge that showed China loosened monetary conditions in Q2 at the fastest pace in almost 2 years.  Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households expanded 17% in the Jan-Jul period from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said, compared with an estimate for 17.4% expansion.  Industrial production rose 9% in Jul from a year earlier, slowing from a 9.2% pace in Jun & also missing projections, while a decline in property sales accelerated in Jul.  Chinese publications reported last month that the PBOC extended a 1T yuan, 3-year loan to a state development bank under the pledged supplementary lending program to support government-backed housing projects.

China Seen Taking Steps to Aid Growth After Credit Plunge


Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, looking to fix its Canadian operations after a money-losing expansion into the country, is revamping the product lineup, improving supplies & teaming up with celebrity designer Sarah Richardson.  The move follows a review of the Canadian business this year company said.  In addition to releasing Richardson-designed products next year, Target Canada is expanding its maternity & cosmetic products & will roll out an exclusive brand of household cleaners called Better Life.  Canadians, who for years shopped at TGT just over the border in the US, were unimpressed by its expansion into the country after finding prices at local stores were higher, while the retailer failed to keep enough merchandise in stock.  TGT said it will begin matching rivals’ prices & better the supply chain in a bid to change that impression.  The Canadian division, which lost $941M before interest & taxes last year, has been a headache for a company already reeling from a hacker attack during the holiday season of 2013.  The move was part of a broader shake-up at the company, which tapped Brian Cornell as its new CEO in Jul.  The company said it plans to bring 30,000 new items to its Canadian stores by Christmas, including more options from Beaver Canoe, an arm of Roots Canada, this fall.  Next year its Canadian shoppers will have access to Nick & Nora, a popular US women’s fashion line.  The store chain is pledging to make sure its shelves stay stocked in Canada by better forecasting & adjusting delivery schedules.  To improve convenience for shoppers, TGT is enabling them to use smartphone applications such as reebee & Flipp for price matching, instead of having to track down offers & bring in printed flyer.  Customers will also be able to match prices from the Canadian online retailers.  The stock lost chump change.  If you would  like to learn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target Revamps Canada Lineup to Rescue Troubled Expansion

Target (TGT)




Ukraine said it would only accept humanitarian aid arriving on hundreds of trucks from Russia if the supplies are distributed by the Red Cross.  Ukraine also demanded that its own customs & border officers examine the shipments first near a checkpoint into the Luhansk region, where pro-Russian separatists have been battling gov troops for months.  There were conflicting reports on the location of the truck convoy.  “During the night, a decision was taken to accept aid for Luhansk to avoid a full-scale invasion from Russia,” a spokesman for pres Petro Poroshenko told reporters in Kiev.  The Organization for Security & Cooperation in Europe would also be involved in checking the cargo that left Moscow yesterday, he said.  The dispute over the Russian convoy is stoking tensions with Ukraine & has prompted the US & EU to warn the Kremlin against using aid as a pretext for a military intervention.  Russia says the supplies are needed to help citizens of Luhansk & Donetsk, where fighting has cut off water & power connections.  Ukraine said today that it will send its own aid to the 2 cities.  The vehicles are moving thru Russian territory, according to a spokesman for Russian pres Putin.  While Russia says the convoy is working under the auspices of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the organization said that it’s awaiting information on what’s being shipped.  

Ukraine Will Accept Russian Aid If Red Cross Hands It Out


Dreary numbers for retail sales published this AM are bringing out stock buyers.  The idea is that worse numbers will encourage the Federal Reserve to delay any increase in interest rates.  Sounds good when all that counts is solving today.s problems today, tomorrow will take care of itself.  More earnings from retailers are coming tomorrow.  Maybe they will bring more sobering thoughts.  Chaos in intl relations has not bothered the markets this year until a few weeks ago.  But unsettled conditions are bad for economies around the globe.  Even with today's rally, Dow is up less than 100 YTD.  That's far from a stellar year that many had forecasted.  Rising bond prices are a significant disconnect with higher stocks prices.  That relationship can not last.

Dow Jones Industrials



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