Monday, August 18, 2014

Higher markets on easing tensions in Ukraine

Dow jumped 136, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 34.  The MLP index was off 1 to the 523s & the REIT index climbed 2 to the 309s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries pulled back after recent strength.  Oil & gold saw selling.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLU14.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 14...96.44 Down ...,0.91  (0.9%)

GCU14.CMX....Gold Sep 14...1,296.70 Down ...8.00  (0.6%)


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Confidence among US homebuilders rose in Aug to the highest level in 7 months, showing the industry is making more headway after weakness earlier this year.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment measure climbed to 55 from 53 in Jul.  Readings above 50 mean more respondents said conditions were good.  The forecast projected it would hold at 53.  Historically low mortgage rates & increased employment are bringing home purchases within reach of more Americans.  Faster wage gains would help provide an additional push for the industry, which is struggling to lure first-time buyers beset by tougher credit conditions.  Estimates ranged from 49 to 55. The measure of the 6-month sales outlook advanced to a one-year high of 65 from 63 in Jul.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Increases to Seven-Month High


China’s new-home prices fell in Jul in almost all cities that the gov tracks as tight mortgage lending deterred buyers even as local govs eased property curbs.  Prices fell in 64 of the 70 cities last month from Jun, the National Bureau of Statistics said, the most since Jan 2011 when the gov changed the way it compiles the data.  Beijing prices fell 1% from Jun, posting the first monthly decline since Apr 2012.  China’s property market has become a drag on the economy, prompting cities to start easing local curbs in Jun.  36 cities had loosened measures as of the end of last week, according to Centaline Property Agency, while developers have cut prices since Mar to lure buyers.  The IMF has urged China to target slower expansion in 2015, saying the economy faces a “web of vulnerabilities” from rising debt & financial institutions’ exposure to real estate.  First-home buyers no longer received mortgage-rate discounts this year.  In Beijing & Shanghai, first-home mortgage rates were the same as the benchmark rate in Jul, while in Guangzhou they were 5-10% higher than the benchmark rate.  Today’s housing data adds to the latest signs that the economy is weakening, making it tougher for Premier Li Keqiang to sustain the fastest growth in the Group of 20 nations.  Foreign direct investment fell 17% in Jul from last year, according to separate data from Ministry of Commerce.  The broadest measure of new credit plunged to the lowest since the global financial crisis & industrial output unexpectedly slowed, the statistics bureau reported last week.

China Home Prices Fall in Most Cities on Weak Demand


News on the intl front has brought a sense of calm, at least for the time being.  Tensions are easing in Ukraine & Iraq claims its forces along with Kurdish fighters have taken the important Mosul dam in Iraq.  But the Chinese economy remains iffy as the gov is struggling to restart the growth engine.  For the time being, the bulls have taken control of the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials









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