Monday, August 25, 2014

Higher markets on hopes for ECB stimulus

Dow climbed 93, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ rose 25.  The MLP index slipped to the 526s & the REIT index was up fractionally above 310.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries went up, taking the yield  on the 10 year Treasury below 2.4%.  Oil & gold did little. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLV14.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 14...93.59 Down ...0.06  (0.1%)

GCU14.CMX...Gold Sep 14....1,277.60 Down ...1.10  (0.1%)









Ukraine said an armored column including 10 tanks entered from Russia early today as the gov in Moscow unveiled plans to send a 2nd convoy with humanitarian aid into its neighbor’s rebel-held territory.  The vehicles, which also included 2 personnel carriers & 2 trucks, were flying separatist banners when they crossed into eastern Ukraine.  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said he had no information about the incident & accused Ukraine of providing “a lot of disinformation about our invasions.”  The looming talks between the leaders of Russia & Ukraine tomorrow are bringing no letup in the conflict that the UN says has left at least 2K dead since pres Putin annexed Crimea in Mar.  Lavrov called on the Red Cross & Ukraine to help with the 2nd delivery of assistance as the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate in the war-torn regions.  Putin & Ukrainian pres Poroshenko will attend talks with EU representatives during a summit of the Russian-led Customs Union.  No separate bilateral meeting is yet planned between them.  Russia has informed Ukraine of plans to dispatch another column of trucks this week, with the convoy taking the same route through rebel-held territory as the tractor-trailers that returned to Russia 2 days ago, Lavrov said.  The US & EU condemned the decision to send the first convoy of about 280 trucks, which the gov in Kiev called an “invasion” after it crossed the border without authorization.  “We want to coordinate our actions with Ukrainian authorities, which are also planning to send additional humanitarian aid to the southeast,” Lavrov said.  “We’ll work on ensuring security guarantees from the side of the militias.”  Tensions continued to flare in the border areas, with the Ukrainian military saying that Russians disguised as insurgents tried to infiltrate the country & the column of armored vehicles crossed the frontier.

Ukraine Says Tanks Enter From Russia Amid Plan for Convoy


ECB President Mario Draghi
Photo:   Bloomberg

Mario Draghi just pushed the ECB closer to quantitative easing.  With euro-area data this week likely to show the weakest inflation since 2009, he used the high-powered central-banking conference in Jackson Hole to warn that investor bets on prices have “exhibited significant declines.”  This fanned speculation the ECB is finally heading for a form of monetary stimulus it has long avoided.  Draghi has previously said that a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook would provide a reason for broad-based asset purchases.  Euro-area inflation may have slowed to 0.3% this month, a fraction of the goal of just under 2%.  Other releases this week are predicted to show unemployment sticking close to a record high & economic confidence falling.  Data today showed business confidence in Germany, the region’s biggest economy, slid for a 4th month.  “The Governing Council will acknowledge these developments and within its mandate will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability over the medium term,” Draghi said last week.  The remarks on inflation expectations were ad-libbed by Draghi. In the scripted text, he also said “we stand ready to adjust our policy stance further.”  He dropped the ECB’s typical qualification that it will act “should it become necessary.”  Draghi’s fear is that if inflation expectations keep falling, they’ll affect actual inflation as investors, consumers & companies pull back spending in anticipation of even weaker prices.  That could tip Europe into a deflationary spiral that would be hard to reverse.

Draghi Pushes ECB Closer to QE as Deflation Risks Rise


New-home sales in the US fell unexpectedly in Jul for the 2nd month as the housing recovery makes only fitful progress.  Sales declined 2.4% to a 412K annuaolized pace, the fewest since Mar & lower than the lowest estimate of economists, after a 422K rate in Jun, according to the Commerce Dept.  Housing has advanced in fits & starts this year, buffeted by tight credit & slow wage growth.  A shortage of skilled labor & supply-chain bottlenecks also have hindered construction even as population growth boosts demand for shelter.  Bigger gains in employment & wages would stoke a more-rapid recovery.  The median sales price of a new house climbed 2.9% from Jul 2013 to $269K.  Purchases dropped in 3 of the 4 regions, led by a 30.8% slump in the Northeast.  The supply of homes at the current sales rate rose to 6 months, the highest since Oct 2011, from 5.6 months in Jun.  There were 205K new houses on the market at the end of Jul, the most in almost 4 years.  Existing home sales picked up last month as low borrowing costs & an increase in inventory drew buyers.

Sales of New U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fall to Four-Month Low


Buyers are out in force on hopes for a massive euro bailout after Draghi  has leaked that it is coming.  But the housing data was not encouraging & military fighting drones on.  The last week in Aug traditionally is the has the lowest volume time of the year & today's volume is continuing that trend.  As a result, small doses on the buy or sell side can produce large swings.  However, Dow & S&P 500 are inches from setting new record highs, making this week more exciting then is usual for the end of Aug.

Dow Jones Industrials







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