Monday, August 11, 2014

Higher markets on optimism about Ukraine

Dow went up 16, advancers over decliners almost 3-1 & NAZ jumped 30.  The MLP soared 18 to the 516s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 305s.  Junk bond funds had solid gains (1-2%) after recent selling & Treasuries settled back, bringing higher yields.  Oil gained for a 3rd day on estimates that US oil inventories dropped as refineries processed record amounts of crude for this time of year.  Gold was a tad lower to the lowest in almost 5 years amid easing tensions in Ukraine.

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Ukraine & Russia announced plans to get aid to civilians caught in fighting in rebel-held east Ukraine, amid warnings to Putin the step can’t be a pretext for military intervention in support of the separatists.  Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said there would be an intl humanitarian mission to the city of Luhansk under the auspices of the Red Cross, involving the US, EU & Russia.  Earlier today, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said agreement had been reached with the Ukrainian gov on providing aid.  There were no immediate details of how or when the help would arrive, & no confirmation from the International Committee of the Red Cross in Geneva.  “I hope that our western partners won’t put a spanner in the works and will think about the people who desperately need supplies of electricity and water to resume, elementary medicines to be available in hospitals so children can have emergency operations,” Lavrov said.  The arrival of an aid mission would ease tensions after months of fighting between gov forces & pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine which has left hundreds dead & created the deepest rift between Russia & US in decades.  Ukraine’s military said it’s near the end of its operation to encircle the remaining separatist strongholds in the cities of Donetsk & Luhansk & called on civilians to leave as gov troops close in.  The army is targeting a decisive victory after successes in recent weeks.

Ukraine Says It Is Near End of Operation to Surround Rebels


Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher said sluggish labor supply growth is a “source of concern” because it may contribute to a slowdown in longer-run output of the economy, which also faces a drag from housing & “broad based” slowing across emerging markets.  Falling labor force participation largely reflects an aging population, though there’s “considerable uncertainty” about how much is due to the sluggish economy, Fischer said.  The participation rate, which measures the share of working-age people in the labor force, is 62.9%, near the lowest since 1978.  “There are good reasons to believe that some of the surprising weakness in labor-force participation reflects still poor cyclical conditions,” Fischer said.  “Many of those who dropped out of the labor force may be discouraged workers. Further strengthening of the economy will likely pull some of these workers back into the labor market, although skills and networks may have depreciated some over the past years.”  He said many advanced economies still struggle after the US recession “left the road ahead unclear.”  Central bankers are grappling with how to gauge slack in the economy & whether sluggishness is due to temporary factors they can influence or permanent ones that are beyond the reach of their monetary policy tools.  For the US, weakness in housing markets, a drag from gov budget cuts & weaker European growth are “all prominent factors that have constrained the pace of economic activity.”  He said housing “continues to weigh on the recovery” as construction falters & home sales cool, in part because of a “sharp rise” in mortgage rates last year.  Recoveries in advanced economies have been “well below average” while the pace of growth in developing nations “has been disappointing,” said Fischer. “The global recovery has been disappointing,” he added.  Slower growth in developing economies “is broad based -- with performance in emerging Asia, importantly China, stepping down sharply from the post-crisis surge, to rates significantly below the average pace in the decade before the crisis.  A similar stepdown has been seen recently for other regions including Latiin America.”

Fed’s Fischer Says Participation Drop May Reflect Slow Growth


Intel, a Dow stock, chasing orders for chips that run mobile devices, said its new Broadwell design based on the latest manufacturing process will start appearing in gadgets for sale by the year-end holiday shopping season.  The Core M chip will be used in thin computers, as slim as 9 millimeters (0.35 inches), that don’t need fans to cool them, Rani Borkar, VP & general manager of product development, said.  INTC is relying on its manufacturing, which it says is the most advanced in the industry, to produce processors that will outperform the chips that now dominate in phones & tablets.  The Broadwell design has new features aimed at getting computer-grade chips into tablet-like devices, Borkar said.  Using 14 nanometer processing techniques, INTC is creating chips that use half the power of previous designs & take up less space inside devices.  In the mobile market, many processors are now built in as part of technology known as system-on-a-chip.  By combining multiple chips into one piece of silicon, the products take up less space, use less power & often perform multiple functions, such as pulling down data over wireless networks & playing back video, more efficiently.  While INTC says its production technology is ahead, it has lagged behind the competition in the introduction of chips that have multiple functions.  The stock rose 42¢.  If you would like to learn more about INTC, click on this link:
Intel Says Broadwell Design to Be in Devices by Holidays

Intel (INTC)




Buyers were encouraged by word of easing tensions in the Ukraine.  But these are highly volatile regions where anything can bring on more fighting.  In Iraq, there is late word that Malaki's allies (speaking for him) say the new PM Ibadi has no legitimacy.  Other late word from Ukraine says Russia has massed 45K troops on the joint border.  Volatility is not going away soon, although the VIX, volatility index, is down from a high in the 16s last week to the 14s (still above the lows around 11).  Today's rally was modest with selling for the Dow in the last 2 hours bringing Dow slightly in the red YTD.

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