Friday, August 1, 2014

Markets drift lower after jos report

Dow fell 25, decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ lost 9.  The MLP index slid a fraction to just under 501 & the REIT index went up 1+ to 304.  Junk bond funds had a modest rebound after yesterday's big sell-off & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil pulled back again & gold found buyers today.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLU14.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 14...97.41 Down ....0.76  (0.8%)

GCQ14.CMX...Gold Aug 14.....1,291.40 Up ...10.10 (0.8%)

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US employers added more than 200K jobs for a 6th straight month in Jul, the longest such period since 1997 & a sign of optimism about the economic outlook.  The jobless rate climbed to 6.2% as more people entered the labor force.  The 209K advance followed a 298K gain in Jun that was stronger than previously reported, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for a 230K increase.  Wages & hours were unchanged from Jun.  The degree of hiring this year may help trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of gains in spending & job opportunities to spur the economy.  While the labor market has improved, Federal Reserve (FED) policy makers this week said they will keep interest rates low until wages accelerate & more discouraged workers find jobs.  Today’s report also showed average hourly earnings were unchanged at $24.45 & were up 2% over the past 12 months.  The average work week held at 34.5 hours.  Construction companies & factories were among those that added more to payrolls in Jul than a month earlier.  Employment gains cooled at retailers, business services & education & health services.  Employment at private service providers increased 140K, the smallest gain in 6 months & the slowdown in hiring was broad-based in that category.  At the same time, goods producers took on workers at a faster rate.  Construction companies added 22K workers & factory employment climbed 28K, led by a 14K gain in payrolls at auto plants (the biggest since Apr 2013).  While the economy is creating more jobs, wage growth has lagged behind, increasingly becoming a focal point at the FED.

Payrolls in U.S. Rose 209,000 in July, Unemployment at 6.2%


Consumer spending in the US rose in Jun by the most in 3 months, ending the qtr on a strong note & signaling that continued job growth will bolster the economy.  Household purchases climbed 0.4% after a 0.3% gain in May that was larger than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Dept.  The increased matched the forecast.  Incomes also advanced 0.4%.  A strengthening job market is supporting consumer confidence & giving households the means to spend as the economic expansion heads into its 6th year.  Today’s consumption data showed that after adjusting consumer spending for inflation, which generates the figures used to calculate GDP, purchases rose 0.2% after a 0.1% gain the previous month.  Spending on durable goods, including automobiles, increased 0.4% after adjusting for inflation following a 1.3% advance in May.  Purchases of non-durable goods, which include gasoline, rose 0.3%.  Household outlays on services increased 0.1% after adjusting for inflation.  In addition to health care, the category also includes utilities, tourism, legal help & personal care items such as haircuts.  The core price measure, which excludes fuel & food, increased 0.1% in Jun from the prior month & was up 1.5% from a year ago, the same as in May.  Total prices tied to consumer spending rose 1.6% in the year ended Jun, after advancing 1.7% in May.  The FED target is for prices to increase around 2% a year.

Consumer Spending in U.S. Rose in June by Most in Three Months


Chevron, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, posted the lowest Q2 oil & natural gas output in 6 years even as spending on new projects surged.  The production decline overshadowed the biggest quarterly profit increase in more than a year.  EPS rose $2.98 from $2.77 a year earlier & exceeded the estimate.  Capital spending on new floating production platforms, wells, gas-export plants & other projects jumped 7.8% to $10.2B.  But it reported output declined 1.4% to the equivalent of 2.545M barrels of oil a day in Q2, the weakest performance since 2008.  The company had been expected to report output of 2.595M barrels a day.  It cited repair work at its sprawling Tenghizchevroil production facility in Kazahkstan as well as contracts that reduce its share of output from some wells when crude prices rise.  Profit was bolstered by the $1.3B sale of stakes in an oilfield in the African nation of Chad & the pipeline that connects it to the coast of Cameroon.  Total sales rose 0.5% to $55.6B.  The stock fell 1.06.  If you would like to learn more about CVX, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CVX?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Chevron Falls as Output Drops Despie Rising Spending

Chevron (CVX)




After yesterday's big drop, the markets are king of taking a breather today.  The jobs report did not inspire buying, the data was already baked into the markets.  Earnings season is winding down & they have been mixed at best.  A new cease fire in Gaza only lasted a few hours, Ukraine is a mess & Argentina is trying to deal with its default.  Dow is down 50 YTD after 60% of the year has been booked, not good.

Dow Jones Industrials










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