Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Markets drift lower ahead of Fed minutes

Dow rose 28, decliners ahead of advancers 5-4 & NAZ was off a fraction.  The MLP index rose 3+ to go over 530, setting a new record, & the REIT index lost pocket change in the 311s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back again.  Oil rose for the first time in 3 days on expected inventories drop & gold slid lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CLU14.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 14...95.70 Up ...1.22 (1.3%)

GCQ14.CMX...Gold Aug 14...1,295.80 Up ...0.70 (0.1%)


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Ukraine’s armed forces said they continue to push back separatists in fighting in the country’s east ahead of a possible face-to-face meeting of the Russian& Ukrainian leaders next week.  Soldiers from Ukraine’s National Guard captured the city of Ilovaysk, leading separatists to counter-attack using tanks & artillery, the National Guard said.  The war, which Ukraine and its allies say is being fueled by Putin’s support for the insurgents, has led to sanctions that have hurt trade & threatened to send Russia’s $2T economy into a recession & Russia denies it’s involved.  Putin will have talks with Ukrainian pres Poroshenko on the sidelines of an Aug 26 Customs Union meeting in Minsk.  This follows a planned visit by Chancellor Merkel to Kiev for talks with Poroshenko on Sat.   Poroshenko is due to join an Aug 30 EU summit in Brussels & a Sep 4 NATO summit in the UK.  Ukraine’s gov says it will declare a truce only if the pro-Russian rebels lay down their arms & Russia stops supplying them with weapons.  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, meeting with his Ukrainian, French & German counterparts in Berlin, repeated calls on Mon for an unconditional cease-fire.

Ukraine Forces Push Back Separatists in East as Diplomacy Efforts Escalate


Lowe's Cos. CEO Robert Niblock
Photo:   Bloomberg

Lowe's trimmed its full-year revenue forecast after weaker-than-anticipated sales of air conditioners in the cooler summer.  Full-year sales will rise about 4.5%, LOW said today, less than a previous prediction of 5%.  The shortfall came from the Q2, which was also hit by disappointing sales of appliances amid increased competition, while the forecast for H2 is unchanged, LOW said.  The retailer is cutting its annual revenue outlook amid rising consumer spending in the US & a housing recovery that remains uneven.  “Economic forecasts suggest continued strength in the home improvement market as employment, income, and consumer spending levels continue to improve,” CEO Robert Niblock said.  “At the same time, signals from the housing market appear mixed.”  In Q2 LOW did get back most of the sales missed during Q1 because of a harsh winter & late spring.  The retailer maintained its full-year earnings outlook, through cost reductions & productivity gains.  In Q2, EPS rose $1.04 from 88¢, a year earlier.  Analysts projected $1.03.  Sales rose 5.7% to $16.6B, matching the estimate,  Same-store sales, considered rose 4.4%, beating the expected a gain of 4.1%.  The stock fell 29¢.  If you would like to learn more about LOW, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LOW?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7  

Lowe’s Cuts Sales Forecast on Weak Air Conditioners Sales\

Lowe's (LOW)




Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, cut its forecast for the year as slumping sales & a money-losing push into Canada take a toll on profit.  TGT now expects full-year EPS of $3.10-$3.30, excluding some items, down from a previous forecast of as much as $3.90.  Analysts had predicted $3.44.  The bleaker forecast follows a preliminary earnings report on Aug 5 that fell short of expectations, signaling that the company’s comeback effort will be slow going.  TGT has been struggling to boost US traffic, repair its botched Canadian expansion & regain shoppers’ trust after hackers stole millions of customers’ data last year.  TGT also said that EPS will be 40-50¢ in Q3, excluding some costs, below the estimate of 66¢.  Q2 EPS of 37¢, plunged  from $95¢  a year earlier.  Excluding some items, the EPS were 78¢ , matching the figure it gave on Aug 5.  Before that report, the company had projected 85¢-$1.00 for the period.  While comparable-store sales were unchanged in the US, they decreased 11% in Canada.  The drop was blamed on the fact that the locations had grand-opening events in 2013, generating traffic that was hard to match this year.  The Canadian business lost $204M before interest & taxes in the period, compared with a $169M deficit a year earlier.  TGT, which hired a new leader to run the operation, said it will begin matching rivals’ prices & is improving its supply chain.  US traffic began to rebound in Jul & have continued to improve in Aug during early back-to-school shopping, said CFO John Mulligan.  “While results from the quarter didn’t meet our expectations, we are seeing some early signs of progress as we work to improve results in the U.S. and Canada,” he said.  With the bad news already out, the stock went up 50¢.  If you would like to learn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Target Lowers Its Forecast as Sales Slump, Canadian Losses Widen

Target (TGT)




There is not a lot going on as traders wait to see the Fed minutes from the last meeting.  Ukraine fighting is trying to get resolved, but that will have to wait for meetings in the next 2 weeks.  ISIL sent a vivid reminder yesterday of how brutal the group is.  The few company reports today sent negative signals about the strength of the US economy but the Dow is still just inches from reaching a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials








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