Friday, September 12, 2014

Markets decline on prospects of US attacks in Iraq

Dow dropped 12, decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ lost 10.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 532s & the REIT index was off almost 5 to 302.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were also sold.  Oil & gold continued weak.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLV14.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 14...92.66 Down ...0.17  (0.2%)

GCQ15.CMX...Gold Aug 15....1,240.30 Down ...2.20  (0.2%)










Syria
Photo:   Bloomberg

House & Senate leaders are backing pres Obama's call to train & equip Syrian rebels even as Reps demand for a broader offensive to defeat Islamic State extremists may delay congressional action.  “We ought to give the president what he’s asking for,” House Speaker Boehner said yesterday.  Still, he said that if the US goal is to eliminate Islamic State, “a lot of our members think a lot more needs to be done” than the pres proposed.  Divisions also were forming among Senate Dems . Several said they opposed Obama’s proposal to aid the Syrian rebels, while others who back the plan said they are wary of proposals to go further.  Obama asked Congress to authorize help for Syrian rebels combating the Sunni extremist group that has swept from Syria deep into Iraq with a campaign of terror.  No US ground troops will be needed.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called for “immediate action” to grant Obama such authority.  “I expect this proposal to pass Congress before the end of next week,” Reid said.  Lawmakers must decide whether to attach the provision to a must-pass spending measure to keep the US gov operating when the new fiscal year begins Oct 1. 

Congressional Leaders Back Syria Action Amid Calls for More


The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 84.6 in Sep from 82.5 the month before.  The estimate projected an increase to 83.3.  Forecasts ranged from 81-89.5.  The index averaged 89 in the 5 years before Dec 2007 & 64.2 in the 18-month recession that ensued.

Consumer Sentiment Index in U.S. Rises to 84.6 in September


Sales at retailers climbed in Aug at the fastest pace in 4 months & prior readings were revised up, boosting prospects for US economic growth this qtr.  The 0.6% gain matched the forecast & followed a 0.3% increase the prior month that was stronger than previously reported, according to the Commerce Dept.  11 of 13 major categories showed advances, led by auto dealers & building material stores.  More hiring, stock-market gains & cheaper prices at the gas pump put Americans in the mood to shop, providing a lift to the expansion that’s now in its 6th year.  Jul retail sales were previously reported as little changed from a month earlier & Jun was revised up to show a 0.4% increase from a previously reported 0.2% gain.  Sales climbed 1.5% at automobile dealers, the best showing since Mar, after a 0.6% increase the prior month.  Americans continued to spend on vehicles.  Sales of cars & light trucks rose to a 17.5M annualized rate in Aug, the highest since Jan 2006, from a 16.4M pace a month earlier.  Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.3% in Aug for a 2nd month, matching the forecast.  Spending increased 1.4% at building-material stores, 0.7% each at furniture & electronic merchants & 0.9% at sporting goods outlets.  2 categories showed weakness with sales declining at service stations & general merchandise chains (including department stores).  Retail sales data aren’t adjusted for prices, so the drop at gasoline stations may reflect lower costs at the pump.  Regular gas sold at an average $3.42 a gallon as of Wed, the lowest in more than 6 months.

Retail Sales Increase in U.S. by Most in Four Months


Better macro economic news ia getting less attention that the intl scene. The US will be bombing targets in Iraq-Syria to root out the bad guys.  But the unintended consequences are also tricky to forecast.  US economic news is looking better although congress will need to pass spending legislation to avoid a gov shutdown in 19 days.  Q3 is winding down & earnings should be decent.  Overseas earnings are tougher to assess with many countries struggling harder than the US.

Dow Jones Industrials







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