Monday, September 8, 2014

Markets slide lower with military fighting around the globe

Dow lost 34, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ added 7.  The MLP index was about even in the 535s & the REIT index inched up pocket change to 315.  Junk bond funds did little & Treasuries rose with an increase in military conflicts.  Oil pulled back again & trading in gold was quiet.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)



CLV14.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 14...92.25 Down ...1.04  (1.1%)

GCU14.CMX...Gold Sep 14.....1,268.40 Up ...2.60 (0.2%)











German exports rose above €100B ($129B) for the first time in Jul & the trade surplus climbed to an all-time high, even as escalating sanctions against Russia threatened trade flows.  Exports gained the most in more than 2 years, climbing 4.7% from Jun to €101B, according to the Federal Statistics Office.  The trade gap widened to €23.4B from 16.6B.  Germany is striving for a return to growth after its economy shrank in Q2.  At the same time, the country has faced criticism in Europe & the US that its trade & current account surpluses slow the global recovery by depressing local production elsewhere.  Imports slid 1.8 % in Jul.  The current acclount surplus widened to €21.7B from €17.2.  German factory orders & industrial production expanded more than expected in Jul, data showed last week.  The Bundesbank has warned that political tensions have cast doubt over a H2 rebound by threatening global trade.  Intl sanctions have been imposed on Russia over its support for separatists in Ukraine, & unrest has worsened in the MidEast.

Germany’s Trade Surplus and Exports Reach All-Time Highs


China’s Exports
Photo:   Bloomberg

China's trade surplus climbed to a record in Aug as exports rose on the back of increased shipments to the US & Europe, while imports fell for a 2nd month as a property slump hurt domestic demand.  Exports increased 9.4% from a year earlier, the customs administration said.  That compares with a 9% estimate.  Imports unexpectedly dropped 2.4%, leaving a trade surplus of $49.8B.  Divergent directions for exports & imports show China is some way from providing the global growth boost this month forecast & is projected to eclipse the US economy in 2024.  Languishing domestic demand underscores risks to the gov economic-growth target this year of about 7.5% as home prices & construction fall, boosting chances of additional stimulus.  The increase in exports follows a previously reported 14.5% jump in Jul & compares with estimates for gains of 4.9-17%.  The projection for imports was for a 3% increase, after a 1.6% drop in Jul, & the trade surplus was forecast at $40B, following a previous record of $47.3B in Jul.  Exports to the US climbed 11.4% in Aug from a year earlier, while shipments to the EU increased 12.1%.  Imports from the US declined 3.1%.

China Posts Record Surplus as Exports-Imports Diverge


Ukraine said its army positions were being shelled during the cease-fire with pro-Russia rebels as the UN human rights chief said the conflict has claimed at least 3K in 5 months.  The EU pres said the bloc is ready to review economic sanctions against Russia, which the EU & US accuse of aiding the rebels, if the cease-fire holds.  “We are prepared, if there is a durable cease-fire, and-or if peace talks should really start, to review these sanctions,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy said yesterday.  Both the gov in Kiev & the separatists have been reporting casualties & violations of the truce, now in its 3rd day.  The armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has reignited Cold War tensions.  A spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security Council said that gov troops have seen no Russian troop movements over the border in the past 24 hours.  Ukrainian forces have been adhering to the cease-fire & shooting only during life-threatending situations.

Ukraine Says Army Is Shelled Amid Truce With Separatists


Military fighting drags on because there is no leadership to end the strife.  As has been the case for months & even years, stocks markets are not greatly disturbed.  A continuation of low interest keeps bringing out stock buyers.  However the markets are vulnerable as many investors have forgotten lessons about retreats.  In the meantime, high values feel good.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart








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