Dow lost 51, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ dropped 31. The MLP index climbed 1+ to the 438s & the REIT index added 1 to the 331s. Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries went up, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 1.9%. Oil is nearing 53 & gold is below 1200 again.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Sales at US retailers rose less than forecast in Mar after being depressed by harsh winter weather, signaling consumers are intent on not overextending themselves. Purchases increased 0.9%, the first gain in 4 months, after a 0.5% drop in Feb, according to the Commerce Dept. The forecast called for a 1.1% advance. Americans remain focused on using the savings at the gas pump to shore up finances even as employment & confidence firm & interest rates remain low. A boost in wage growth may be what’s needed to drive households to loosen their purse strings and sustain a pickup in growth after a Q1 slowdown caused mainly by unusually harsh winter weather. The Feb reading was revised from an initially reported 0.6% decrease. Even though the Mar increase was smaller than projected, it was the biggest advance in a year. Demand climbed in 9 of 13 major retail categories last month. A rebound in sales at auto dealers paced the increase. Car purchases climbed 2.7%, the biggest gain in a year. The auto figures are in line with industry data. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.4% after being little changed in Feb. They were projected to rise 0.7%. Core sales, used to calculate GDP & which exclude such categories as autos, gasoline stations & building materials, climbed 0.3% last month after a revised 0.2% decrease in Feb that had previously been recorded as little changed.
Wholesale prices in the US climbed in Mar for the first time in 5 months, reflecting higher costs for fuels & motor vehicles. The 0.2% gain in the PPI followed a 0.5% drop the prior month, according to the Labor Dept. Over the past 12 months, wholesale costs fell 0.8%. The PPI excluding volatile food & fuel also increased 0.2% from a month earlier. A pickup in wholesale costs that filters through to consumers would help reassure Federal Reserve policy makers that inflation will advance toward their goal. At the same time, a rising dollar & limited growth overseas may hamper efforts by American companies to be more aggressive in raising prices. Wholesale prices excluding food & energy were projected to rise 0.1% after falling 0.5% the month before. The core index increased 0.9% in the 12 months thru Mar. Eliminating food, energy & trade services, which some economists prefer because it strips out one of the most volatile components of PPI, costs climbed 0.2% last month after no change in Feb. More than half the Mar increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.3% advance in the cost of goods. Motor vehicle prices jumped 1.9%, the most since Oct 2008, while a 7.2% surge in the cost of gasoline was the biggest since Sep 2012. The FOMC was split at its meeting last month on when to begin raising rates from near zero. Several participants wanted to normalize policy starting in June, while others favored later in the year. “Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting,” according to the minutes. Others said energy-price declines & a stronger dollar would continue to curb inflation, arguing for a rate increase later in the year. A couple said the economy probably wouldn’t be ready for tighter policy until 2016.
JPMorgan Chase, a Dow stock, Q1 profit climbed 12%, beating estimates, as revenue from
trading stocks & bonds increased for the first time since 2010. EPS rose to $1.45 from $1.28 a year earlier. The was for $1.41. Excluding 13¢ in legal
expenses & about 3¢ in accounting adjustments, EPS was
$1.61. Trading revenue had a “very strong” start to the year as higher
volatility boosted volume
in February. Wall Street firms suffered declines in trading revenues
last year amid unusually calm markets. That turned in Q4, & higher volatility helped results in the first three months
of 2015, CFO Marianne Lake said. “We believe it’s here to stay to a degree, but maybe not to the
degree we saw in the first quarter,” Lake said. “There will be other events, including normalization of
interest rates, that will continue to drive healthy trading revenues
over time.” Companywide revenue increased 4.1% to $24.8B, mostly driven by gains at the corp & investment bank. Profit in the investment bank division rose 19% to
$2.54B, the biggest increase in the firm’s 4 main businesses.
The company said “macro events” drove client activity in currencies,
emerging markets, rates & equities. Fixed-income trading revenue advanced 4.5 percent to $4.07B,
exceeding the $3.94B estimate. Equity-trading revenue increased 22% to $1.61B,
beating the $1.41B estimate. Trading during Q1 climbed on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2010. Higher capital requirements prompted
JPM, the world’s biggest investment bank, to lower its target for
returns at that business to 13% from 15%.
The firm is also considering whether to shrink in areas including
interest-rates trading and prime brokerage because of the new capital
rules. The stock rose 1.33. If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Once again the economy is showing drab numbers after retail sales proved disappointing. Inconsistent data from consumer spending is another reminder that the while the recovery has been lengthy, it has also been weak. That's a justification for the Fed maintaining low interest rates. Bank earnings, as usual, are difficult to appreciate with a mish-mash of contradictory data. At least JPM reported higher revenue, which has been lacking at other banks.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CLK15.NYM | ...Crude Oil May 15 | ...52.62 |  ....0.71 | (1.4%) |
| GCJ15.CMX | ....Gold Apr 15 | ......1,195.30 | ...4.00 | (0.3%) |
Sales at US retailers rose less than forecast in Mar after being depressed by harsh winter weather, signaling consumers are intent on not overextending themselves. Purchases increased 0.9%, the first gain in 4 months, after a 0.5% drop in Feb, according to the Commerce Dept. The forecast called for a 1.1% advance. Americans remain focused on using the savings at the gas pump to shore up finances even as employment & confidence firm & interest rates remain low. A boost in wage growth may be what’s needed to drive households to loosen their purse strings and sustain a pickup in growth after a Q1 slowdown caused mainly by unusually harsh winter weather. The Feb reading was revised from an initially reported 0.6% decrease. Even though the Mar increase was smaller than projected, it was the biggest advance in a year. Demand climbed in 9 of 13 major retail categories last month. A rebound in sales at auto dealers paced the increase. Car purchases climbed 2.7%, the biggest gain in a year. The auto figures are in line with industry data. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.4% after being little changed in Feb. They were projected to rise 0.7%. Core sales, used to calculate GDP & which exclude such categories as autos, gasoline stations & building materials, climbed 0.3% last month after a revised 0.2% decrease in Feb that had previously been recorded as little changed.
Retail Sales Climb Less Than Forecast From U.S. Bad Weather
Wholesale prices in the US climbed in Mar for the first time in 5 months, reflecting higher costs for fuels & motor vehicles. The 0.2% gain in the PPI followed a 0.5% drop the prior month, according to the Labor Dept. Over the past 12 months, wholesale costs fell 0.8%. The PPI excluding volatile food & fuel also increased 0.2% from a month earlier. A pickup in wholesale costs that filters through to consumers would help reassure Federal Reserve policy makers that inflation will advance toward their goal. At the same time, a rising dollar & limited growth overseas may hamper efforts by American companies to be more aggressive in raising prices. Wholesale prices excluding food & energy were projected to rise 0.1% after falling 0.5% the month before. The core index increased 0.9% in the 12 months thru Mar. Eliminating food, energy & trade services, which some economists prefer because it strips out one of the most volatile components of PPI, costs climbed 0.2% last month after no change in Feb. More than half the Mar increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.3% advance in the cost of goods. Motor vehicle prices jumped 1.9%, the most since Oct 2008, while a 7.2% surge in the cost of gasoline was the biggest since Sep 2012. The FOMC was split at its meeting last month on when to begin raising rates from near zero. Several participants wanted to normalize policy starting in June, while others favored later in the year. “Several participants judged that the economic data and outlook were likely to warrant beginning normalization at the June meeting,” according to the minutes. Others said energy-price declines & a stronger dollar would continue to curb inflation, arguing for a rate increase later in the year. A couple said the economy probably wouldn’t be ready for tighter policy until 2016.
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Increase for First Time in Five Months
J P Morgan Chase (JPM)
Once again the economy is showing drab numbers after retail sales proved disappointing. Inconsistent data from consumer spending is another reminder that the while the recovery has been lengthy, it has also been weak. That's a justification for the Fed maintaining low interest rates. Bank earnings, as usual, are difficult to appreciate with a mish-mash of contradictory data. At least JPM reported higher revenue, which has been lacking at other banks.
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment