Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Higher markets led by biotechs in choppy trading

Dow went up 122, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 42.  The MLP index, extended its run, adding 5+ to the 342s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 336s.  Junk bond funds gained 1-2% (big in this world) & Treasuries were sold.  Oil lost ground, back in the 47s, & gold was flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










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CLX15.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 15....47.91 Down ...0.62  (1.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



IMF warned officials to protect their financial systems from possible instability as the Federal Reserve (FED) prepares to raise interest rates, saying shocks or policy missteps risk derailing the global economy & triggering equity market sell-offs.  High debt levels at banks & other companies have left developing economies susceptible to financial stress & capital outflows, just as the FED prepares to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006.  "Emerging markets face substantial challenges in adjusting to the new global market realities from a position of higher vulnerability," the fund said, describing the preconditions for a FED rate rise as “nearly in place.”  China, in particular, faces a "delicate" task in shifting to more consumption-driven growth without exposing the weaknesses of highly indebted companies & banks saddled with rising non-performing loans.  “Recent market developments underscore the complexity of these challenges, as well as potentially stronger spillovers from China,” the fund said.  Failure by policy makers to address this “triad” of challenges would reduce global output by 2.4% by 2017, as tightening credit conditions undermine confidence among businesses & households, the IMF estimated.  In an adverse scenario that the fund examines to study potential risks, long-term gov bond yields would increase rapidly, while stock values in the US, UK, euro area & Japan would slide about 20%.  Energy prices would drop 22.7%, while the prices of non-energy commodities would slump 11.8% under the scenario, which the IMF called plausible but ”not extreme.”  The rate of corp defaults would rise, particularly in China.  To reduce debt risks, China should gradually withdraw gov support from broad swaths of its financial system, a move that implies greater tolerance for defaults & volatility, the fund said.  Even with the gov's substantial tools to absorb shocks, there could be “bouts of financial volatility” as China shifts to a new growth model.  Preventing a global financial shock will require the FED to be “clear and consistent” in the communication of its plan to raise rates, while authorities in emerging markets will need to closely monitor the foreign-currency exposures of companies.

IMF Warns of Growing Emerging-Market Risks


Google (AKA Alphabet) unveiled a mobile publishing platform aimed at making news articles on smartphones load faster, catching up with the competition.  The service, called the “Accelerated Mobile Pages Project,” (AMP) is aimed at loading mobile web pages almost instantly instead of requiring consumers to wait several seconds to open an article.  For tech companies, improving the experience of reading news on smartphones increases the likelihood that consumers will continue using their services.  The companies are also seeking solutions to make sure ads don’t slow down the access to articles, as many consumers have downloaded ad blockers to make them load faster & potentially threatening publishers' advertising revenues.  Almost 30 publishers from around the world will publish articles on AMP, which is in a test format & will be available to the public at a later date.  “The Web today, particularly in a mobile environment, is not fully satisfying users’ expectations,” Richard Gingras, Google’s head of news, said.  “It’s not as fast as it should be. Pages load slowly, sometimes erratically.”  For publishers, partnering with tech companies is an attempt to stay relevant as readers increasingly discover & share stories on their smartphones & social media -- rather than through the media companies’ own websites.  Social-media sites will also post content to GOOG's new mobile platform.  GOOG has no deals to share advertising revenue with publishers & is focused solely on making the mobile Web work faster, according to Gingras.  High priced GOOG stock fell 3.  If you would like to learn more about GOOG, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GOOG?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Google Unveils Mobile News Reader to Compete With Facebook

Alphabet (GOOG)



General Electric, a Dow stock, will pluck the commercial LED business from its lighting unit & combine it with software, solar & energy storage to offer companies more efficient systems that are expected to propel revenue growth fivefold by 2020.  Current, as GE calls the new business, will increase annual sales to about $5B in 5 years from its start at $1B.  LED, or light-emitting diode, revenue jumped 77% in the Q2 while the unit’s other products fell 17%.  CEO Jeff Immelt is focusing on building up the manufacturing units, which make products ranging from jet engines to oilfield equipment, & shrinking the GE Capital lending arm.  GE has already jettisoned $97B in credit & real estate assets as it returns to its industrial roots.  GE has been testing the combination of LED lights, sensors & software analytics to reduce costs at commercial buildings, where lighting account for about 20% of energy costs, said Maryrose Sylvester, who will be chief of Current & remain head of GE Lighting.  Retailers using the combined products will be able to determine where customers spend most of their time in a store to use lighting more efficiently, for instance, & cities will be able to monitor traffic patterns.  The new unit also will offer solar, energy storage & electric vehicle-charging technology & have options to tap GE financing for projects, she said.  “We’re ready to pull it all together into an overall suite of actions and solutions for customers,” she said.  “The opportunity is massive.”  The Lighting unit now will focus on a consumer LED business that has about $250M of annual revenue.  LED is at a tipping point where it’s becoming popular with consumers, Sylvester said.  In 2014, GE Lighting had revenue of about $2.5B.  The stock rose 48¢.  If you would like to learn more about GE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

GE Splits Lighting to Form LED Unit as $5 Billion in Sales Seen

General Electric (GE)



Once again, it is difficult to explain the reasoning behind the wild swings in the market.  Maybe it's just nervousness ahead of earnings season & there are doubts about the reports.  Oil finished down in volatile trading after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said domestic crude inventories rose 3.1M barrels last week, more than the 2.2M barrel build that was expected.  Oil gave up about 30% of the gains in the last 3 days.  Dow had been trying to crack thru 17K today, but failed.  Maybe tomorrow.  Dow is up 900 since Sep 28, one eye-popping run & very overbought.

Dow Jones Industrials








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