Thursday, October 1, 2015

Sluggish beginning for the new quarter

Dow lost 12 (but near the best levels of the day), decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 6.  The MLP index rebounded a huge 12 to the 315s & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 305s.  Junk bond funds were weak & Treasuries rose.  Oil & gold finished lower.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)








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CLX15.NYM....Crude Oil Nov 15....44.75 Down ,,,0.34  (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



The US economy is on track to grow 0.9% in Q3 after a bigger-than-expected widening of the trade gap for goods in Aug, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed today.  This was a much slower rate from the regional Fed bank's prior estimate of 1.8% on Mon.  The advance Aug trade reading, showing a deficit of $67.187B (the largest since Mar), led the regional Fed's program to estimate a drag of 0.9 percentage point on US growth, which was 0.7 point bigger than the previous estimate on Mon.

Atlanta Fed slashes third quarter view on U.S. economic growth

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose last week, maintaining a pattern of gains & losses around decade lows that signals firings remain muted.  Jobless claims climbed 10K to 277K, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for 271K.  The 4-week moving average fell to the lowest level in almost 2 months & the number receiving benefits was the smallest in 15 years.  Employers are retaining staff amid solid domestic demand, one reason why claims have been hovering near historically low levels even as overseas markets languish.  The 4-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly claims numbers, decreased to 270K.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped 53K to 2.19K, the fewest since 2000.  The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits declined to 1.6%, the lowest since mid Jul.  Since early Mar, claims have been below the 300K level that is consistent with an improving job market.  In addition, steady growth in payrolls and more job openings are helping to sustain household spending, the biggest part of the economy.

U.S. Jobless Claims Are Near Decade Lows


San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank pres John Williams today renewed his call for an interest-rate hike "sometime later this year," citing near-full employment & rapidly rising house prices that may be a sign of excessive economic optimism.  His prepared remarks in were nearly identical to those made in on Mon.

SF Fed Pres Calls for 2015 Rate Hike


Wal-Mart, a Dow tsock & Dividend Aristocrat, is preparing a round of layoffs as early as tomorrow that would affect hundreds of employees at its headquarters office.  Human resources employees have reserved many of the meeting rooms at the headquarters on Fri as well as small rooms typically used by suppliers to pitch products to the retail giant.  Some department directors were told to cancel travel this week or make sure they come to the office on Fri.  Fewer than 500 workers are expected to lose their jobs (about 19K work for WMT in the region).  Talk of layoffs at the world's largest retailer has swirled for months within the community of WMT employees, the company's suppliers, executive recruiters & others who live in the region.  In Aug, the company cut its earnings outlook while reporting Q2 net income fell 15% from the previous year.  The retailer is facing competition on all fronts, traditional grocery stores & discount chains.  Executives have said they are taking a long-term approach to rebuilding the company, investing heavily in e-commerce, improving stores & employee wages.  In Aug, CEO Doug McMillon said that "for the back half of the year, we will manage these items closely with a continued commitment to efficiency, cutting costs where appropriate, even in a period of investment."  The stock fell 57¢.  If you would like to learn more about WMT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/WMT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Wal-Mart Preparing to Cut Headquarters Jobs

Wal-Mart (WMT)



Stocks finished well above the the AM lows.  However this was not a good way to begin Q4.  Economic data will continue to be uneven.  Then there are numerous problems in the US & overseas.  The WMT story is another story in a string of disappointing ones about how a lack of growth hurts employees & suppliers.  At least the MLPs finally found buyers.  The jobs numbers & related data will drive the markets tomorrow.  Dow is still on track for a bad year, down 1.5K YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials







 

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