Friday, November 20, 2015

Higher markets despite a rise in terrorism

Dow gained 91 (below the AM highs), advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ went up 31.  The MLP index sank 7+ to 301 & the REIT index added 3+ to the 321s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil dropped below 40, a key support level, & gold was also weak.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund





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CLZ15.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 15....40.54 Up ...0.01 (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



Cisco, a Dow stock, will buy Acano, a closely held London-based company that provides conferencing software, for $700M as it seeks to bulk up in a fast-growing area of revenue growth.  The purchase will help CSCO deliver more video services in a market where only 10% of conference rooms in the world are currently connected, the company said.  CSCO aims to take advantage of a “massive market shift” towards connecting via video from anywhere, including mobile phones.  Its collaboration business. which includes the Webex conferencing service & video conferencing equipment is already seeing the results of that shift: the division grew 17% fiscal Q1-2016 year.  CSCO will pay $700M in cash & assumed equity awards, plus additional retention-based incentives for Acano employees who join CSCO.  The acquisition is expected to close in Q3-2016.  The stock rose 20¢.  If you would like to learn more about CSCO, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CSCO?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Cisco Plans to Buy Acano for $700 Million to Boost Conferencing

Cisco (CSCO)



Another day, another Fed official preparing the markets for a likely Dec rate hike.  St. Louis Fed pres James Bullard signaled that a rate hike is coming “soon,” but offered no specifics.  Instead, he pointed to the Fed statement from its Oct meeting.  “In October, the [policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee] removed the key sentence citing global factors and suggested that the zero interest rate policy could be ended soon, depending on incoming data,” Bullard said.  Bullard’s comments back up a message the Fed has been sending for weeks, that the Fed is seriously considering raising rates in Dec & wants markets to be prepared for the move.  Minutes released from the Oct meeting show that FOMC members made a conscious decision to start preparing markets for a Dec liftoff.  Language contained in the statement specifically cited the Fed’s “next meeting,” (Dec15-16) as a potential starting point for rate hikes.  The language was far more specific than any language previously used.  “The market-based probabilities of a near-term end to the zero interest rate policy have increased,” Bullard said, adding, “While any decision will be data dependent, as always, some key questions loom for the FOMC.”  In other words, the markets are now widely expecting rates to move higher in Dec & they probably will unless something drastic occurs that negatively impacts the global economy.

Fed's Bullard Signals Imminent Rate Hike


Abercrombie & Fitch focused instead on reinvigorating its brand & it paid off in Q3 as profits more than doubled.  "Our third quarter results exceeded our expectations coming into the quarter and provide the strongest validation yet that our initiatives are working," said Executive Chairman Arthur Martinez.  The shift in strategy can be seen in the quarterly adjusted gross profit rate, 63.7%.  That's an improvement of 120 basis points, & 210 basis points on a constant currency basis, over last year.  For the period EPS rose to 60¢, sharply ahead of 25¢ last year.  The performance looked even better thanks to an improved tax situation, which turned into $5.9M on the plus side.  Last year, the company incurred an expense of approximately $9.6M.  EPS, adjusted for non-recurring gains, were 48¢, versus projections of 19¢.  Revenue totaled $878.6M, also handily beating expectations for $869M.  But sales at stores open at least a year dipped 1%.  The Hollister locations led the way, where same-store sales rose 2%, which offset some weakness at name brand stores.  The company anticipates Q4 sales at stores open at least a year to be about flat.  The stock shot up 4.88 (26%).  If you would like to learn more about ANF, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/ANF?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Abercrombie cuts back on sales and it pays off in 3QAP

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)



Corp Q3 earnings declined year over year for the first time in 6 years.  Traders were more concerned with the Fed delaying its rate hike & Dow rose a staggering 1.5K in Q3 (earnings season).  Today there was profit taking in the PM.  However Dow still finished with a significant rise this week, good enough to bring it near break even YTD.  Terrorism is on the rise around the world & this optimism may not last.

Dow Jones Industrials








 

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